How Long Will My Money Last Calculator
The core retirement risk is outliving your money. Whether your portfolio lasts 20 years or 50 depends on your withdrawal rate, return, and inflation. This calculator shows exactly when your money runs out — and what withdrawal rate makes it last as long as you need.
Enter your portfolio value, monthly withdrawal, expected return, and inflation to see your exact runway and portfolio value year-by-year.
How Portfolio Longevity Works
Your retirement portfolio has two competing forces: investment returns (which grow the balance) and withdrawals (which shrink it). If your return rate exceeds your withdrawal rate, the portfolio grows indefinitely. If your withdrawal rate exceeds the return rate, the balance shrinks toward zero. The crossover point — when withdrawals permanently exceed returns — determines when the money runs out.
The math matters a lot here. At a 6% annual return and $4,000/month withdrawal from $800,000, the initial withdrawal rate is 6% ($48,000 ÷ $800,000). A 6% withdrawal from a portfolio earning 6% stays flat before inflation — inflation-adjusted withdrawals will eventually erode the balance. Understanding your specific numbers prevents both underspending (leaving money on the table) and the more catastrophic outcome of running out.
The 4% Rule — and Its Limitations
The classic 4% rule states that withdrawing 4% of your starting portfolio annually, adjusted for inflation, has a very high probability of lasting 30 years based on historical market data. It's a useful starting point: a $1M portfolio supports $40,000/year ($3,333/month). A $800,000 portfolio supports $32,000/year ($2,667/month).
Limitations: the 4% rule assumes a 50/50 or 60/40 stock/bond mix, a 30-year retirement, US market historical returns, and no major changes to spending. If you retire at 55 (40-year horizon), are in a different asset mix, or face unexpected large expenses, a more conservative rate (3%–3.5%) provides more security. This calculator lets you test any rate against your specific numbers.
| Monthly Withdrawal | Annual Rate | 5% Return | 7% Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,667 ($32K/yr) | 4% | 39 yrs | Indefinite ✓ |
| $3,333 ($40K/yr) | 5% | 27 yrs | 49 yrs |
| $4,000 ($48K/yr) | 6% | 19 yrs | 31 yrs |
| $5,000 ($60K/yr) | 7.5% | 14 yrs | 20 yrs |
Strategies to Extend Your Money's Longevity
- Reduce withdrawal rate: Even a 0.5% reduction (from 5% to 4.5%) adds years to a portfolio's longevity.
- Delay Social Security: Waiting from 62 to 70 increases your benefit by roughly 76%. Larger guaranteed income means smaller portfolio withdrawals.
- Maintain stock exposure: A higher stock allocation in early retirement (60%–70%) improves expected returns despite higher volatility.
- Dynamic spending: In down market years, reduce spending 5%–10% to avoid selling equities at a loss. In up years, optionally spend more.
- Floor-and-upside approach: Cover essential expenses with guaranteed income (Social Security, pension, annuity) and use the portfolio only for discretionary spending.
For a complete explanation of how the order of returns affects retirement portfolios, read sequence of returns risk. For retirement income planning across all sources, use the Retirement Income Calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
At a 4% withdrawal rate ($40,000/year) with 6% returns: indefinitely — the portfolio grows. At 5% ($50,000/year) with 6% returns: approximately 30 years. At 6% ($60,000/year) with 6% returns: about 22 years. The answer depends entirely on the relationship between your withdrawal rate and your return rate. Enter your specific numbers above for a precise answer.
What is a safe withdrawal rate in retirement?
The classic "4% rule" (Bengen, 1994) shows that 4% of starting portfolio value, adjusted annually for inflation, has historically lasted 30 years. More conservative planners use 3.3%–3.8% for 40+ year retirements. This calculator shows the maximum withdrawal rate that sustains your portfolio for your target number of years at your assumed return.
What happens if I run out of money in retirement?
Running out of money in retirement is called longevity risk. Strategies to reduce it: lower your withdrawal rate, delay Social Security to maximize guaranteed income, maintain higher stock allocation, use dynamic spending (cut spending in down market years), and consider annuitizing a portion of assets for guaranteed lifetime income regardless of market performance.
Should I increase withdrawals for inflation?
Inflation-adjusted withdrawals maintain purchasing power but deplete the portfolio faster in high-inflation environments. Fixed withdrawals are simpler but lose real value over time. A middle ground: adjust withdrawals partially for inflation (70%–80% of inflation rate) or use a floor-and-upside approach where essential expenses are covered by inflation-adjusted guaranteed income and portfolio withdrawals are more flexible.
How does stock allocation affect portfolio longevity?
Higher stock allocations produce higher expected long-term returns (better longevity) but with more volatility (sequence risk in early years). For a 30+ year retirement, most research supports 50%–70% stocks. For 20-year retirements, a more conservative 40%–50% stocks may reduce sequence risk. This calculator uses a single expected return — in practice, the actual sequence of returns matters as much as the average.
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